The energy crisis may just about be over if fracking is used across the world. The availability of reserves of exploitable shale gas and other 'unconventional' sources of energy have changed the way the world looks at hydrocarbons and the future view of their cost. It is now predictions that the US may well be an energy exporter by 2030 and Europe could be self-sufficient soon after. The topic was the subject of a Science in Radstock lecture recently.
Local Conservative MP for North East Somerset, Jacob Rees-Mogg, explains: "There is currently an application pending for a test of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) at Hicks Gate by Keynsham. Similar tests took place in Blackpool, but were suspended after small earth tremors were recorded. There have also been stories from the United States of pollution to water sources and of gas emerging from water taps in people's kitchens. This raises the question of the safety of fracking, the environmental risks and the potential benefits.
"The easiest part to answer is on the potential benefits. It is thought that there is 200 trillion cubic feet of onshore gas available from fracking. As the country uses 3.5 trillion cubic feet per annum, this would supply us for nearly sixty years, with a further 1,000 trillion feet offshore. These figures are sourced from a Reuter's report earlier this year.
"These quantities of gas would secure our supply for several generations. As Europe is currently dependent on Russia and the Middle East for much of its energy needs, a domestic supply would reduce the strategic risk for our nation. Russia has been willing to use its energy dominance in power games with its neighbours and has been in an uneasy relationship with the United Kingdom for centuries. The Middle East has well-known risks, not least of which is the current possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear weapons programme.
"Apart from a greater feeling of national security, there would also be the benefit of cheap energy for consumers. The price of gas in the United States has fallen from $5.69 per 1,000 cubic feet in January 2010 to $4.37 in 2011 and $2.89 in 2012, primarily as a result of fracking. This is of particular advantage to the less well-off, who spend a larger percentage of their income on heating. It also helps industry as low gas prices lead to cheaper electricity, helping an economy to be globally competitive.
"Against these advantages are the environmental risks mentioned above. Fortunately, they are not as frightening as they sound. The Royal Academy of Engineering paper explained that the earth tremors created by fracking are less than those created by coal mining. This is because the energy released is not as great as that from rock falls in the voids left by coal mining. The magnitude of the tremors in the Blackpool area was 2.3ML. At 3ML a seismic event is similar to the passing of a lorry, while at 2ML, it is not felt except by very few under especially favourable conditions. As North East Somerset is an area that is used to the effects of mining, it seems unlikely that such events would even be noticed.
"More troubling are the reports of water pollution. In America, there is one incidence where bad practice led to the chemicals used in fracking contaminating nearby water. The Royal Society, therefore, recommends that the industry should be carefully regulated, but notes that the risks are in line with those for ordinary oil, gas and coal extraction. The reports of well contamination have not been shown to be connected to fracking, but studies have shown that there can be naturally occurring methane in areas where fracking can take place successfully. Perhaps most importantly, no case of taps bursting into flame has credibly been linked to fracking.
"It is common for new technologies to create uncertainty and opposition. The natural fear of the unknown and the difficulty of quantifying risk makes people cautious. However, there would have been little human advancement without cheap energy. England was lucky to have large supplies of coal that were easily mineable, which gave us our lead in the Industrial Revolution. As we face a century of competition against China and India, we must not look a gift horse in the mouth," said Mr Rees-Mogg.